Turkey's large military presence within Nato (second after the United States) served as a major deterrent during the Cold War. Can Turkey be relied upon today to support any contemplated Nato moves to counter Russia's in Ukraine? President Erdogan’s recent comments opposing Finland and Sweden joining Nato puts this in question.
Europe, and specifically the European Union, lost a golden opportunity to bring Turkey in from the cold during the 1990s when Turgut Ozal was in power, when a customs union was put in place between the EU and Turkey, and when Turks of all strata were looking to Europe.
By having Turkey join as an EU Member, Europe would have started a process of laying the past to rest - the shared history between Europe and the Ottoman Empire of conquest and counter conquest.
Europe would also have contributed to and had an intellectual influence over Islamic reformation, drawing on its own Christian reformation experience.
A Turkey in the EU would have had the benefit of European values, although much could be said of this influence on some East European EU Members today.
A Turkey in the EU would have added economic strength to the Union and contributed a young, energetic labor force.
A Turkey in the EU would have lessened the impact of populist forces worldwide by showing by live example that it is OK to accept different peoples with different religions and different ethnicities as long as there is a common frame of reference shared by all.
How will Nato and Turkey deal with their differences on Finland and Sweden? And how will relations between Europe and Turkey be shaped by the moves of an aggressive Russia?
The world has started realigning itself along different spheres of influence from those that we have come to know since 1945, and the times ahead will be full of new developments.